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Solving the Mystery of Matriculation Decisions

Chronicle of Higher Education

March 2, 2010

Using data from the Middlebury College classes of 2008 through 2012, three researchers created a model for predicting "yield," the proportion of admitted students who ultimately enroll. Race was among the strongest predictors of matriculation, with the probability of black students' enrolling lower (by 32 percentage points) than the probability of white students' enrolling. Although the effect of net price on the probability of attending was also significant, the authors deemed its impact "small."

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