A Long Way Down

For years, projected declines in American high school graduates have loomed over the future of higher education. The metaphorical demographic cliff, as it’s been described ad nauseam, undergirds sectorwide fears of massive program cuts, college closures and inadequate workforce capacity.

Next year, that cliff will become more than a metaphor, according to a new report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. The number of 18-year-old high school graduates will peak in 2025 at around 3.9 million, the report projects, followed by a 15-year decline. By 2041, the number of traditional-age incoming college students will be down 13 percent.

That harsh new reality could be a shock for many higher ed institutions.